
Texas data-center power choices could reverse decades of emissions cuts
HARC's Texas assessment asks how rising data-center electricity demand could change emissions under different power-supply choices. Its modeled range is wide enough that some paths threaten to reverse substantial cuts in emissions, while others add far less pollution. These are conditional projections. They are not measurements of pollution from facilities that have not yet been built, and they should not be presented as an inevitable statewide outcome. The consequential finding is the sensitivity to the supply decision. A community evaluating a project needs to know more than its advertised computing capacity. It needs to know which sources will actually serve the load, what controls they use and how often they operate. A claim about the eventual grid mix may not answer what happens during an interim period of on-site generation. The method also sets limits on the conclusion. HARC scales a representative facility, assumes a utilization level and projects capacity and emissions trends. Delayed projects, different designs or a changing grid would shift the result. Emissions totals also do not directly tell us the pollution concentration at an individual home or the health outcome of a particular resident. That uncertainty is a reason to make decisions observable. Publish the expected operating profile, the permit conditions and the monitoring results. Communities can then compare promises with performance. The study is most useful as a warning about choices that remain open, rather than a dramatic number detached from the assumptions that produce it.












