How we read the signal

Analysis frame

Evidence level

Primary-source evidence

Analytical lens

Why partial task substitution without visible productivity gains may produce more fear than either nonuse or successful adoption.

Affected groups
  • workers adopting AI tools
  • managers setting productivity expectations
  • unions and workforce development programs
  • industries facing task restructuring
What remains unknown
  • Whether perceived productivity and job fear reflect causal effects of AI adoption
  • How the same workers' jobs, wages, and expectations changed after the survey
  • Whether employer practices explain differences across industries and education groups
Second-order effects to watch
  • An anxious adoption middle could resist tools even when specific workflows are beneficial
  • Highly productive AI users may gain wage leverage while coworkers face higher targets without gains
  • Industry-level fear could affect spending, training choices, and labor mobility before layoffs occur

Fear grew even when most workers felt personally secure

Boston Fed analysis found that the share of workers worried about losing their own job to AI rose from 5 percent at the end of 2024 to just over 10 percent at the end of 2025. Sixty percent expected AI-related layoffs or fewer workers across their industry.

The gap suggests that workers can feel individually safe while expecting collective disruption. It also warns against using current job retention as proof that broader labor anxiety is irrational.

The adoption middle carried the most anxiety

Workers reporting the strongest productivity gains had an estimated 6.1 percent likelihood of job-loss concern and were more likely to consider asking for a raise. Workers neutral about productivity gains had a 21.2 percent estimated likelihood of concern and were most likely to report unmanageable new expectations.

The results are perceptions from a survey and do not establish that AI caused either productivity or fear. They identify a practical target: redesign the workflow and the bargain around workers who are using AI but cannot convert the effort into visible value or security.

Primary trail

Go to the source

Read the evidence behind this analysis. External links open in a new tab.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston — Workers' perspectives on artificial intelligence