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An Asian port city shows industry, classrooms, workers and chip research linked by uneven bridges.
Work & marketsAsia-Pacific+2 clusters01

The IMF's Asia outlook says AI growth will depend on who can adapt

A regional growth story can conceal very different experiences for people living inside it. The IMF's new book on Asia's future treats technology and AI alongside demographics, changing trade, productivity and labor-market strength. It is not a one-number forecast that AI will make every Asian economy richer. IMF modeling published earlier this year offers a sharper warning: economies with infrastructure and institutions to adopt AI early may capture gains sooner, while less-prepared economies can face delays and higher capital costs. Within countries, gains may tilt toward people who own capital while young workers reliant on wages face adjustment. Those are modeled possibilities, not measured outcomes across Asia. The IMF has separately said AI could add up to 0.8 percentage points to annual GDP growth under favorable productivity and labor assumptions; 'up to' is essential. At today's annual-meetings event, IMF researchers are scheduled to discuss labor markets using millions of Asian job postings, but the listing does not supply a result to report yet. The practical question is what readiness buys: cheaper compute, reliable power and networks, small-firm adoption, training that creates real work and support for workers who do not own the tools. Asia is too diverse for a single AI winner narrative. Governments should show regional and age-group outcomes, not only national output. The book is an October publication; its relevance today comes from the IMF meetings and decisions the evidence may inform.

6 min
A one-percent AI productivity column rises over Europe while unequal light reaches workers, regions, firms, and strained power-grid nodes.
Work & marketsEurope+3 clusters02

IMF says AI could lift European productivity while widening its gaps

The International Monetary Fund says artificial intelligence could raise European productivity by roughly 1% over five years, while warning that gains and disruption will be distributed unevenly across countries, regions, sectors, and workers. The estimate is cumulative, not an annual growth rate, and depends on adoption, regulation, finance, skills, energy, and market integration. IMF research published earlier put the reform-free Europe-wide gain at about 1.1% over five years and found that higher-income economies may benefit more because they have more AI-exposed professional services, higher wages, and stronger adoption incentives. Exposure is not the same as job loss: some tasks are augmented, while routine or replaceable work faces more displacement pressure. The infrastructure constraint is equally important. Reuters reports that European data centers already consume about 3% of electricity, with major hubs placing pressure on local grids. That turns the AI dividend into a distribution problem. A company can record faster output while a region absorbs grid investment; a high-skill worker can gain leverage while another loses tasks; and richer member states can compound an early lead. The single market, capital markets, portable worker protections, and integrated energy systems appear in the IMF analysis because diffusion determines whether the gain remains concentrated. The headline is not that AI will either save or weaken Europe. It is that a modest aggregate dividend can coexist with severe local strain and wider internal gaps.

8 min
A sub-Saharan Africa network assembled from connected layers of electricity, digital infrastructure, skills, and institutions.
Work & marketsSub-Saharan Africa+4 clusters03

Schindler et al., “Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa”

An IMF paper frames sub-Saharan Africa’s central AI risk less as immediate technological disruption than as failing to adopt, adapt, and scale the technology quickly enough to share in productivity and growth gains. Using country-level estimates, adoption scenarios, and emerging African use cases, the authors identify unreliable and insufficient electricity, limited digital infrastructure, scarce technical skills, and gaps in regulatory and institutional capacity as the main constraints on adoption.

3 min