IMF says AI could lift European productivity while widening its gaps

The International Monetary Fund says artificial intelligence could raise European productivity by roughly 1% over five years, while warning that gains and disruption will be distributed unevenly across countries, regions, sectors, and workers. The estimate is cumulative, not an annual growth rate, and depends on adoption, regulation, finance, skills, energy, and market integration. IMF research published earlier put the reform-free Europe-wide gain at about 1.1% over five years and found that higher-income economies may benefit more because they have more AI-exposed professional services, higher wages, and stronger adoption incentives. Exposure is not the same as job loss: some tasks are augmented, while routine or replaceable work faces more displacement pressure. The infrastructure constraint is equally important. Reuters reports that European data centers already consume about 3% of electricity, with major hubs placing pressure on local grids. That turns the AI dividend into a distribution problem. A company can record faster output while a region absorbs grid investment; a high-skill worker can gain leverage while another loses tasks; and richer member states can compound an early lead. The single market, capital markets, portable worker protections, and integrated energy systems appear in the IMF analysis because diffusion determines whether the gain remains concentrated. The headline is not that AI will either save or weaken Europe. It is that a modest aggregate dividend can coexist with severe local strain and wider internal gaps.