The AI electricity bill is not one national number

If your electricity bill has risen, a national average is not much comfort. But a useful explanation still needs to distinguish what drove the increase from what happened alongside it. A new working paper estimates the price effects of US data-center additions during 2020–2025 using local utility data and a synthetic-control design. Its household result is smaller than many sweeping claims about an AI-driven bill shock would suggest. The authors estimate a residential effect of $1.7 per megawatt-hour, accounting for about 4% of the observed residential price increase. That is not a 4% rise in every household's bill. For industry, their estimate is $5.4 per megawatt-hour and 15% of the observed increase. These are study estimates for a historical period, not a guarantee about the next wave of construction. The useful story is therefore distribution. Which customer class pays? Which utility already had spare capacity? How do contracts allocate new infrastructure costs? An average can be modest while a particular community faces a more difficult negotiation. Equally, a highly visible local dispute cannot establish that every data center has the same effect. This paper is not yet a peer-reviewed verdict, and data-center capacity is not a clean measure of AI-only demand. I would use it to improve the questions asked at a local hearing, not to close the hearing down. Ask for the tariff, the investment assumptions and what happens if projected demand never arrives. Evidence of a smaller average effect should make the debate more precise, not make affected households invisible.