Software jobs are projected to grow. The first rung may still shrink.

A forecast that sounds like good news can be bad news for the person trying to get started. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment of software developers, quality-assurance analysts and testers to grow 10% from 2025 to 2035, faster than the average occupation. That is a decade-long projection, not a promise of uninterrupted hiring or a surge every year. CNBC reports a rebound in developer postings from a weak base, with stronger demand for senior and AI-related skills. The exact posting subseries could not be independently verified here, so the BLS outlook is our numerical anchor. Stanford's payroll research finds a 19% relative employment shortfall for 22-to-25-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations as of June 2026, compared with the path implied by less-exposed peers. Its authors explicitly say this is descriptive, not proof that AI caused the gap. Together these findings suggest an uncomfortable possibility: an occupation can expand while the apprenticeship route into it narrows. Employers may need engineers to integrate AI, verify outputs, secure systems and own failures, while automating the smaller assignments that taught juniors. The test is not whether every coder will lose a job. It is whether firms build paid entry-level work that develops judgment as the tools improve.